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This will help us focus on what features are interesting for one country and later expand to countries participating in the world cup. The first World Cup was played in Create a column for year and pick all the games played after We can now visualize the most common match outcome for Nigeria throughout the years.
Getting the winning rate for every country that will participate in the world cup is a useful metric and we could use it to predict the most likely outcome of each match in the tournament.
Create a dataframe with all the participating teams. We then further filter the results dataframe to show only teams in this years world cup from onwards as well as drop duplicates.
We then separate the X and Y set and split the data into 70 percent training and 30 percent test. We will use logistic regression , a classifier algorithm.
How does this algorithm work? I t measures the relationship between the categorical dependent variable and one or more independent variables by estimating probabilities using a logistic function.
Specifically the cumulative logistic distribution. In other words logistic regression attempts to predict an outcome a win or a loss given a set of data points stats that likely influence that outcome.
The model then learns how each piece of data you feed it influences the outcome of the game positively, negatively and to what extent. Give it enough good data and you have a model that you can use to predict future outcomes.
A model is as good as the data you give it. We are now ready to pass this to our algorithm:. At this point we will create a dataframe that we will deploy our model.
We will start by loading the FIFA ranking as of April dataset and a dataset containing the fixture of the group stages of the tournament obtained from here.
We then add teams to the new prediction dataset based on ranking position of each team. The next step will be to create dummy variables and and deploy the machine learning model.
By now you are wondering will we ever get to the predictions? That has been too much code and talk, when will you show us the prediction?
Just hold on tight we are almost there…. We start with deploying the model to the group matches. Here are the results of group stages. The model predicted three draws it also bet safely between Portugal and Spain but awarded Spain a high probability of winning.
I used this website for simulation of the group stage matches. Below is the round of 16 knockout simulation.
The model predicted a quarter final between: Yes we refund your money and send next match for free. As a team in betting community worldwide, we are dedicated to provide you correct, valid and profitable information.
Our purpose is only your maximum profit through professional betting based on strategy and particular gainful methods. They are our life. We are spending hours every day meticulously going through each game, examining every possible circumstance surrounding the games, injury players, playing condition, historical trends, and a mountain of other vital statistics trying to determine the result of the game.
We take part from the restricted forums, were the normal guy can't take part. We have partners in countries like: We often exchange information with top analysts around the world.
We help them, they help us. As long as we're not eating or going to the bathroom, just about every waking minute of our days is spent into the soccer database.
This is what separates US from any other soccer predictions analysts out there. When clients come to us, they know what they are buying!
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